Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-26.
Vital Farms' consensus tape has been cut hard over the past six months: FY2027 revenue is down about 25% and normalized EPS about 80% versus 180 days ago, though the pace of cuts has slowed in the last month. A long run of large EPS beats broke with two consecutive misses in FY2025 Q4 and FY2026 Q1, and analysts now model a loss-making FY2026 margin trough before a partial FY2027-28 recovery. Coverage thins sharply beyond FY2027, and the street sits mostly at Hold.
Street slashed FY27 EPS ~65% and revenue ~17% over 90 days
The 30-day change is near flat for revenue, so most of the reduction landed one to six months ago rather than recently.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $2.16 | $1.26 | $0.50 | $0.44 | -64.6% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | — | $1.07 | $0.49 | $0.49 | -54.2% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $1.14bn | $1.02bn | $846.92m | $848.58m | -16.8% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | — | $1.17bn | $905.33m | $946.40m | -18.8% |
Six straight EPS beats, then two consecutive misses
Revenue has stayed close to consensus throughout; the swing is concentrated in EPS, where FY2026 Q1 landed well below the estimate.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 4 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive misses.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $182.37m | $187.16m | +2.6% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.06 | -$0.03 | -150.8% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $212.83m | $213.55m | +0.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.39 | $0.35 | -11.2% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $191.43m | $198.94m | +3.9% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.30 | $0.36 | +20.0% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $170.81m | $184.77m | +8.2% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.27 | $0.36 | +31.7% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $162.98m | $162.19m | -0.5% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.26 | $0.37 | +43.0% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $160.32m | $165.99m | +3.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.17 | $0.23 | +39.4% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $145.30m | $145.00m | -0.2% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.12 | $0.16 | +33.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $138.42m | $147.39m | +6.5% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.20 | $0.36 | +81.8% | Beat |
Consensus models a FY26 loss-year margin trough, then recovery
Gross margin is modelled to fall from about 38% in FY2025 to about 26% in FY2026 before rebuilding toward roughly 33% by FY2028.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $758.94m | $775.31m | $848.58m | $946.40m | — | 11 | $755.00m / $761.60m |
| Gross margin | 37.9% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 33.0% | — | — | — |
| EPS (normalized) | $1.48 | -$0.42 | $0.44 | $0.49 | — | 10 | $1.45 / $1.50 |
| EBITDA | $115.37m | $3.42m | $45.67m | $74.00m | — | 12 | $115.00m / $116.00m |
Wide FY27 dispersion: EPS $0.21-$0.90, EBITDA $10m-$65m
Coverage is deepest at FY2027, yet the ranges frame an unresolved debate over how far and how fast margins recover.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $0.44 | $0.21–$0.90 | 155.3% | 7 |
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $45.67m | $10.06m–$64.90m | 120.1% | 9 |
| Revenue | FY2027E | $848.58m | $798.70m–$987.00m | 22.2% | 10 |
Mostly Hold - 7 of 10 neutral, no sells; targets $10-$16
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 2, Outperform 1, Hold 7, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 10 |
| Consensus score | 2.50 | 10 |
| Target price | mean $12.00; median $12.00; high $16.00; low $10.00 | 8 |
FY2028 rests on just one or two analysts
FY2028 revenue, EPS and net income each rest on a single estimate, and EBITDA on two; treat the outer year as indicative, not consensus.