Models

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 10 brokers · 316 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.

Broker models frame Vital Farms as a 2026 profit air-pocket rather than a growth story. Revenue keeps climbing every year through 2028, but a cost spike craters FY2026 profitability — gross margin falls from the high-30s to the mid-20s and the models flip to an operating loss — before a partial, contested recovery. Consensus on the top line is tight; the real debate is how much margin comes back and whether the 2025 peak is gone for good.

Key drivers

Revenue rises every year, yet FY2026 cost of goods sold jumps well ahead of it, collapsing gross margin and pushing the models to an operating loss. The FY2027 rebound only partly repairs the damage.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Top line	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net revenue	$759.24m	$776.19m	$835.32m	$954.52m	+2.2%	10
Margin	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cost of goods sold	$471.28m	$576.49m	$590.11m	$664.88m	+22.3%	10
Gross profit	$287.96m	$199.70m	$245.21m	$289.63m	-30.7%	10
Gross margin(%)	37.9%	25.7%	29.4%	30.3%	-12.2pt	10
Profit	—	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDA - Operating	$115.39m	$3.86m	$50.09m	$59.46m	-96.7%	10
EBITDA margin(%)	15.2%	0.5%	6.0%	6.2%	-14.7pt	10
Operating income/(loss)	$90.33m	$-24.63m	$19.25m	$22.29m	-127.3%	10
Net income/(loss)	$67.04m	$-19.19m	$12.17m	$22.04m	-128.6%	10
EPS-Diluted($)	$1.46	$-0.43	$0.27	$0.49	-129.7%	9

How deep the 2027 rebound goes is genuinely contested

On FY2027 the models range from a lingering operating loss to a solid profit, and EBITDA spreads roughly threefold. The dispute is the value question here.

Line	Period	Median	Q1–Q3	Min–max	Brokers
Gross profit	FY-2027E	$247.21m	$237.86m–$254.78m	$213.65m–$273.14m	8
EBITDA - Operating	FY-2027E	$51.25m	$48.85m–$54.34m	$24.68m–$64.91m	8
Operating income/(loss)	FY-2027E	$20.81m	$16.71m–$24.51m	$-5.63m–$33.66m	8
EPS-Diluted($)	FY-2027E	$0.34	$0.13–$0.36	$-0.05–$0.62	7

Eggs carry the model; the butter & ghee bet stays small and choppy

Eggs are the near-entirety of revenue and set the trajectory. Butter & ghee is a minor line that the models dip in FY2026 before recovering — and it rests on only 3-5 brokers.

Line	FY-2025A	FY-2026E	FY-2027E	FY-2028E	YoY	Brokers
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net revenue	$759.24m	$776.19m	$835.32m	$954.52m	+2.2%	10
Product	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total revenue - Eggs	$732.61m	$787.90m	$874.61m	$1.02bn	+7.5%	5
Total revenue - Butter and ghee	$27.56m	$15.46m	$33.52m	$44.84m	-43.9%	5

Models call it a lasting reset, not a blip

Revenue keeps climbing every year through FY2028, yet modeled EBITDA and margins never return to their 2025 peak — the street is treating the cost step-up as permanent, not a one-year dip.

Segment KPIs are single-broker; out-years thin

Sales volume (dozens) and average selling price per dozen carry just one broker and move erratically year to year, so treat them as a single view, not consensus. FY2028 thins to 2-3 brokers on most lines.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.